August 9th Election Ruto Win Analysis by Kenya Confidential Political Desk, Nairobi – August 30, 2022
Away from the emotional hate and condemnation, students of political strategy can place William Samoea Ruto (WSR) on a study table and dispassionately examine him as a competitor – surgically as pathologists chop human bodies during autopsies.
People who study operational strategies, know that victory does not come by chance – it is earned through strategic planning and execution. We also know that discerning men grow from losses and are not diminished by them.
Abraham Lincoln is one of the most famous failures with a high influential personality.He is probably the greatest example of persistence on grounds of his failures. If you want to learn about somebody who didn’t quit, look no further.
Born into poverty, Lincoln was faced with defeat throughout his life. He lost eight elections, twice failed in business and suffered a nervous breakdown. Raila Odinga has lost presidential elections five times but still fighting for another chance through his third petition.
Lincoln could have quit many times – but he didn’t and because he didn’t quit, he became one of the greatest presidents in the history of United States of America.
Winners must be able to clinically examine every loss in order to secure future victories and stave off losses. Ruto started learning from Kanu losses.
World class boxers carefully study the footages of their bouts and those of their opponents, noting their style, attitude, efficiencies, weaknesses and how they match up before they square up against them.
Often, what you see as victory today is backed by what James Clear called Atomic Habits that go way back. Kanu losses were backed by sheer arrogance and a strong sense of entitlement by those who rode on the party and its offsprings including TNA and Jubilee.
A good Lion tamer understands that Lions have predatory instincts and have sharp teeth and claws.
An incompetent lion tamer complains about being mauled and bitten by the lion while a competent one handles the lion with mastery and remains unharmed.
So, what can we learn from WSR?
WSR has mastered the oratory of the Adolf Hitler. Adolf Hitler, the leader of Germany’s Nazi Party, was one of the most powerful and notorious dictators of the 20th century. Hitler, like Ruto, capitalized on economic woes, popular discontent and political infighting to take absolute power in Germany beginning in 1933.
Perhaps spurred by his earlier poverty, like WSR, Hitler seemed determined to amass a personal fortune. Much of his money came from predictable sources—siphoning off government money and state corporations.
In addition, Hitler refused to pay income tax. He used his vast wealth—which some estimated was about $5 billion—to amass an extensive art collection (Ruto invested heavily in helicopters), purchase fine furnishings, and acquire various properties – so did WSR.
Ruto has a fleet of helicopters
You have to rule the darkness if you want to rule the light
WSR was up early before sunrise and by 6AM he was at the polling station ready to vote.
This is a man who wakes up early when it is dark to plan how he will kick ass during the day while other are nursing hangovers and sucking away the last dregs of sleep from their systems.
WSR understands the importance of early morning habits when people are sleeping. By the time RAO was making his way to the polling center at 10AM, WSR had dispatched choppers to oversee how things were on the ground. Raila, on the other hand, was being escorted by thousands of Luo youths and a convoy of show off top range Prados – many of whose owners and youths never voted – denying him critical victory.
If you want to sleep and fart the whole night, achieving victory over someone who starts to toil while it is still dark will be a tall order. I am telling you.
The first Muslim prayer called Fajr is done at 4AM, way before sunrise. These are serious people and the guys who developed that timetable understood why you have to start communing with your maker at that hour. If you want to operate at a higher frequency, you have to learn to open your portals when it is early.
He deployed his full force
WSR used his money to full effect. He released choppers for Moses Kuria to monitor the voting in Central Kenya and to confirm that whatever ploys they had planned were in force.
He also had a team handling Rift valley. He understood that people prioritize their stomachs and he took care of their stomachs.
They had agents in almost all polling stations. Azimio lacked agents in dozens of polling stations and half assed their way into this battle with deleterious effects. He made sure he took care of not only his agents and politicians, but also the officials.
Even now, I hear the bald headed man has left the country. This guy deployed his resources to control the horizontal and the vertical. What about the Supreme Court Judges. You think he is sitting and leaving them to their own devices? Does he look like a man who leaves things to chance?
You have to hit your enemy with tremendous force if you want to win.
He remained alert at all time
He didn’t relax or go to sleep. He knew he had no backing of the bogeyman called deepstate or the executive president. He knew nobody was coming to save him.
He rolled his sleeves, communed with his soul and walked into a battlefield filled with formidable enemies.
Azimio and their “friends” were complacent from the opinion polls and having the state machinery at their disposal. They even risked having polling stations in central without Azimio agents and ended up having ballot boxes stuffed and numbers inflated. Heck, we even have seen cases where RAOs votes were suppressed in his own strongholds.
Unlike his opponents, he doesn’t drink or numb himself with foolishness. He is stone cold sober 24/7, his eyes are always darting around, observing the state of play and reading the crowd while others are dozing off in rallies. You give him older opponents who have imbibed alcohol and he fks them up proper.
If you want to win, you must be hungry. You snooze, you lose.
He was ruthless and left nothing to chance
As much as people condemn him, he ensured he took the Church to bed. Our churches are useless when it comes to moral rectitude and are no different from the thieving politicians. But even if you put that aside, Ecclesiastes 7:16 says we shouldn’t be too righteous so the Church itself allows room for being cunning and venal.
The Churches will always come up with contrived scriptural interpretations to justify taking stolen money from politicians and I won’t get into them here.
At any rate, WSR knows Kenyans are namby pamby when it comes to moral principles, and he knows that Kenyans respect their men of the cloth, corrupt as they are.
He gave generously to the Church, knelt piously, quoted Bible verses, wept on altars and painted himself as a victim being persecuted by the state.
Thurakus bought his narrative and turned up to vote for him thinking they were punishing their billionaire president Uhuru Kenyatta and also setting themselves up for a bright future.
They were foolish and they will soon reap where they have sown. But does he care? A win is a win. Where is Chebukati – his August 9 election hero?
He is strategic and willing to do everything to win
He understood that Mt Kenya has a huge number of poor, frustrated, excitable and marginalized populations. He galvanized the Mount Kenya base with hustler narrative and villainized RAO and the Prezo as dynasty.
He sold them a dream of bottoms up economy which the illiterate Kibaki era beneficiaries nduthi guys and roadside sellers in central swallowed hook, line and sinker.
He distanced himself from his boss and even though he was enjoying state resources, still managed to paint himself a victim of the state to the masses. He didn’t have qualms about whether this was moral or not, or the long term consequences of his ideologies.
He also ensured that he capitalized on his strongholds to inflate numbers and voter turnouts to favour him.
Winning was everything and especially winning big in places where he was strong. In Nyanza, the corruption-tagged governors were not bothered with the presidential results once they were sorted.
IEBC staff did the rest for WSR. He also had Rigathi Gachagua whose experience from Nyayo era YK’92 tyranny and government corruption was critical in mobilizing people at the grassroot level.
Hate him or love him, the guy has backbone. He stood against opponents with wider reach, pedigree, deeper roots, aristocratic networks and state resources including the bogey man deep state.
Ruto was occupying a weaker position but didn’t falter or waver. Rather than supplicate to them and negotiate an easy compromise with the powerful overlords, he girded his loins and strengthened his resolve.
He forged a strategy against them, used everything he had, including deploying hook and crook, and won supplemented with billions he extorted from them to support Uhuru presidency in 2013. He believes, like Moi, pesa huvuja milima.
He has nuts of granite. To win, you must be brave and ready to fight to death. Ruto however, never diverted his political focus to fight sideshows with the fourth estate or hostile media – like so many politicians engage in. instead he opted for occasional media interviews in which he focused on his victory agenda.
Connection with the masses
WSR will never have as much charisma as RAO. But what he lacks in charisma, he makes up for with good oratory powers. Where RAO is a masterful storyteller, WSR packages his messages in Hitler-style punchlines and rhetorical questions that keep the audience engaged.
Ama namna gani my frens? He asks after open lies to ignorant masses.
This false camaraderie with struggling populations and his fabricated rags to riches story has endeared him to the downtrodden.
WSR even climbed a wheelbarrow and rode in it!
He speaks clearly, knows how to ridicule his opponents without appearing mean and for this, he won hearts.
Every noise and condemnation directed at him is a transitory thing after which the grim silence of facts remains: he outplayed his opponents. He literally bought the presidency in a manner his competitors could not fathom.
Don’t lose it in anger, guys, learn the hard way.